The Republic of Indonesia, the world’s fourth most populous state, is in a process of profound political transformation. Depending on how the process unfolds,Indonesiacould evolve into a more stable and democratic state, revert to authoritarianism, or break up into its component parts an Asian Yugoslavia but on an almost continental scale. Indonesia’s evolution could drive the Southeast Asian security environment in either of two directions. A successful democratic transition in Indonesiawould be a factor of stability in Southeast Asiaand beyond. Indonesiawould become the world’s largest Muslimmajority democracy a development that could have a significant impact on the political evolution of Asiaand the Muslim world. It could lead to the reconstruction of a Southeast Asian security system grounded on democratic political principles. [download]
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